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A Backward Scenario Planning Overview of the Greenhouse Gas Emission in Iran by the End of the Sixth Progress Plan

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Abstract
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Taking Iran as the 7th Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission source of the world, the country contains a high potential for the emission management plans and studies. As the economy is a significant factor in the greenhouse gas emission, studying the economy and GHG emission integrated relations must be taken into account of every climate change and environmental management plan. This paper investigates the relationships among the economic, demographic, foreign policies, and many other domestic and foreign parameters, which are illustrated by sixth Iranian document over development and GHG emission in three progress scenarios made for this plan. In this paper, all the significant GHG emissions such as CO<sub>2</sub>, SO<sub>2</sub>, NO<sub>x</sub>, hydrocarbons, and CO in the period of 2014-2020 are being studied. As the results show, the number of emissions is directly related to domestic and foreign parameters, which means a better economic status in Iran causes an increase in the number of emissions. The foreign policies are more effective in the Iranian economy and emissions than the domestic policies and parameters. The scenarios and the results show that the Iranian economy and energy systems have a significant potential for efficiency development plans. However, one thing is clear that Iranian emissions will be increased to 800 million tons by the end of the plan period (by 2021). This significant increase in the amount indicates the importance of optimization and efficiency development plans in Iran, which is predicted to control and fix this increment around 3-4%.

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Wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) using membrane bioreactor (MBR) technology have been considered a significant source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study chose a small-scale wastewater treatment plant using MBR technology to estimate its potential for GHG emissions. The total GHG emissions from this wastewater treatment plant ranged from 2,802 to 11,946kg CO2 -eq/month within the 4-year study period, and they were mainly attributable to electricity consumption (79.94%) followed by chemical usages (17.13%) and on-site GHG emissions (2.93%). The on-site GHG emissions varied monthly, but most of them ranged from 80 to 160kg CO2 -eq/month. The aeration tank was an important operating unit for GHG emissions. Off-site GHG emissions mainly came from carbon dioxide (CO2 ) emissions resulting from electricity consumption. The results of this study provide useful information about the potential of GHG emissions from WWTPs using MBR technology and indicate that WWTPs can be sustainably managed. PRACTITIONER POINTS: Wastewater treatment plants have been considered a source of greenhouse gas emissions. Total greenhouse gas emissions from the wastewater treatment plants using membrane bioreactor were mainly attributable to electricity consumption. On-site greenhouse gas emissions were relatively insignificant in this study.

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All material supplied via Jukuri is protected by copyright and other intellectual property rights. Duplication or sale, in electronic or print form, of any part of the repository collections is prohibited. Making electronic or print copies of the material is permitted only for your own personal use or for educational purposes. For other purposes, this article may be used in accordance with the publisher's terms. There may be differences between this version and the publisher's version. You are advised to cite the publisher's version. This is an electronic reprint of the original article. This reprint may differ from the original in pagination and typographic detail.

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The activity of exploration and production in oil and gas industry is significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emission source. PT. XYZ is one of upstream oil and gas industry in Indonesia and it have large crude oil and gas potential with it reserves that not manage yet. Therefore, GHG emission potential from the activity of exploration and production in PT. XYZ is very large. This study is done for estimate GHG emission reduction potential in PT. XYZ from various activities. Emission inventory is the first step to estimate GHG released to atmosphere. Method of estimation use the method developed by American Petroleum Institute (API). This study considers three types of mitigation measures options, including technical options (scenario 1), behavior option (scenario 2), and policy option (scenario 3). Based on emission inventory, flare and oil storage tank are primary source of GHG emissions in PT. XYZ. Scenario 1 prefers control of GHG emissions in flare and storage tank as primary emission source. While others scenario prefers to control GHG emission from transportation sector. Scenario 1 has potential to reduce emissions by 48.3 %. While scenario 2, and 3 in sequences have potential to reduce emissions by 0.15%, and 0.52%. Emissions flare and oil storage tank can be reduced through the installation of flaring gas recovery unit and vapor recovery unit. Both are effective and efficient in reducing GHG emissions in PT. XYZ. In addition, all mitigation measures of transportation sector provide benefits even though the amount of GHG that can be reduced is not significant.

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