A 900-year pollen-inferred temperature and effective moisture record from varved Lake Mina, west-central Minnesota, USA

Abstract

Drought is endemic to the North American Great Plains, causing severe economic consequences. However, instrumental climate data only exist from ca AD 1890, and limited tree-ring, paleolimnological, archeological and eolian records document the last two millennia. To address this lack of monitoring and paleoclimatic data, the pollen preserved in the varved sediments of Lake Mina, Minnesota, on the northeastern border of the Great Plains, were analyzed. May and February mean monthly temperatures and “annual precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration” were reconstructed at a 4-year resolution using a pre-settlement pollen–climate calibration set. The period of the so-called Little Ice Age (LIA) (AD 1500–1870) was colder than the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) (AD 1100–1500) in west-central Minnesota. Winter temperatures in the LIA declined more than summer ones. The pollen record suggests that the LIA occurred in three phases: an initial cold phase from AD 1505 to AD 1575, a warmer phase, and then a very cold phase from AD 1625 to AD 1775. There were severe droughts detected in the Lake Mina record from AD 1660 to AD 1710 and AD 1300 to AD 1400, suggesting that high-resolution pollen records can detect events previously defined from the tree-ring records. This latter century-scale drought is concurrent with the widely reported “AD 1250–1400 mega-drought”, which exceeds the severity of 20th century droughts.