A $70/tCO2 greenhouse gas mitigation backstop for China's industrial and electric power sectors: Insights from a comprehensive CCS cost curve

Abstract

As one of the world's fastest growing economies with abundant coal reserves, China's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have doubled in the last decade and are expected to continue growing for the foreseeable future. While the Central Government has been promoting development and growth of cleaner and more efficient energy systems, efforts to reduce carbon emissions from the heavily coal-based economy may require continued and increased development and deployment of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technologies. This paper presents the first detailed, national-scale assessment of CCS potential across the diverse geographic, geologic, and industrial landscape of China, through the lens of an integrated CCS cost curve. It summarizes the development of a cost curve representing the full chain of components necessary for the capture and geologic storage of CO2 from China's power generation and industrial sectors. Individual component cost estimates are described, along with the optimized source–sink matching of over 1600 large stationary CO2 sources and 2300gigatons of CO2 storage capacity within 90 major deep geologic onshore sedimentary sub-basins, to develop a cost curve incorporating CO2 capture, compression, transport, and storage. Results suggest that CCS can provide an important greenhouse gas mitigation option for most regions and industrial sectors in China, able to store more than 80% of emissions from these large CO2 sources (2900million tons of CO2 annually) at costs less than $70/tCO2 for perhaps a century or more.