A 16-year prospective cohort study to evaluate effects of long-term fluctuations in obesity indices of prediabetics on the incidence of future diabetes

Shahla Safari,Maryam Abdoli,Awat Feizi,Ashraf Aminorroaya,Masoud Amini

doi:10.1038/s41598-021-91229-9

Shahla Safari, Maryam Abdoli + Show 3 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-91229-9

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Journal: Scientific Reports	Publication Date: Jun 2, 2021
Citations: 4	License type: open-access

Affiliation: Isfahan University of Medical Sciences

Abstract

This study aimed to evaluate the patterns of changes in obesity indices over time in prediabetic subjects and to classify these subjects as either having a low, moderate, and high risk for developing diabetes in the future. This study was conducted among 1228 prediabetics. The patterns of changes in obesity indices based on three measurements including first, mean values during the follow-up period, and last visit from these indices were evaluated by using the latent Markov model (LMM). The mean (standard deviation) age of subjects was 44.0 (6.8) years and 73.6% of them were female. LMM identified three latent states of subjects in terms of change in all anthropometric indices: a low, moderate, and high tendency to progress diabetes with the state sizes (29%, 45%, and 26%), respectively. LMM showed that the probability of transitioning from a low to a moderate tendency to progress diabetes was higher than the other transition probabilities. Based on a long-term evaluation of patterns of changes in obesity indices, our results reemphasized the values of all five obesity indices in clinical settings for identifying high-risk prediabetic subjects for developing diabetes in future and the need for more effective obesity prevention strategies.

Highlights

This study aimed to evaluate the patterns of changes in obesity indices over time in prediabetic subjects and to classify these subjects as either having a low, moderate, and high risk for developing diabetes in the future
Mean value of waist circumference (WC) was significantly higher in males while mean values of CHOL and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL) were higher in females (P < 0.001)
Mean values of body mass index (BMI), hip circumference (HC), WC and waist to hip ratio (WHR) were statistically significantly higher in impaired glucose metabolism” (IGM) group while mean value of HDL was higher in IGT group (P < 0.001) (Table 1)

Summary

Introduction

This study aimed to evaluate the patterns of changes in obesity indices over time in prediabetic subjects and to classify these subjects as either having a low, moderate, and high risk for developing diabetes in the future. A meta-analysis based on the 17 prospective and 35 cross-sectional studies showed that higher BMI, WC, WHR and WHtR associated with the progress of diabetes[13] Another meta-analysis prospective indicated that higher WHtR and WC were more strongly associated with the development of diabetes. The association among obesity indices and T2DM has been investigated in various populations, few studies have been conducted to evaluate such association in prediabetic subjects as high risk p opulation[11,13,16]

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