Abstract
In response to increased foreign fishing activity near US coasts, the US Coast Guard developed a 0–1 nonlinear programming model of fisheries law enforcement aircraft patrols that identified the level of patrol required to maximize the expected value of the patrol effort. The model results were used to address the strategic questions of determining the required resource levels, to provide justification for additional resources in the budget process, and to establish performance guidelines. A nonlinear behavioral model of a fisherman's probability of violation that explicitly accounted for the deterrent effect of the aircraft patrols was the basis for calculating the expected value of a patrol. The model represented a major advance in characterizing program effectiveness for the fisheries law enforcement program, providing, for the first time, a quantified estimate of deterrence and a defensible analytic basis for determining aircraft needs.
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