7 - Metropolitan Growth and Migration: Estimation of the Model

Abstract

During the 1950–1960 period, greater rates of income growth significantly discouraged out-migration to both nonmetropolitan areas and to other metropolitan areas. During the 1960–1970 period, such rates of growth discouraged outmigration to nonmetropolitan areas only. For each period, greater rates of income growth encouraged in-migration from non-metropolitan areas. Of the 16 income variables, including both rates of growth and levels, that appear in the migration equations presented in this chapter, 7 income variables have unanticipated signs and 6 have the anticipated sign and are significant. Though several earlier studies concerning the determinants of migration suggest that high income or wage levels are attractive to migrants, the evidence presented in this chapter lends little support to these earlier findings. Only 1 of the 8 income-level variables is both of the expected sign and is significant. The simultaneous nature of the relationship between the rate of migration and the rate of employment growth is evident in each employment equation, with the exception of that for manufacturing during the 1950s. Higher rates of outmigration tended to significantly discourage employment growth, whereas higher rates of in-migration encouraged such growth. During the 1960s, greater rates of natural CLF increase had consequences qualitatively similar to those of immigration.