Abstract
Harmonious development of 3Es (economy-energy-environment) system is the key to realize regional sustainable development. The structure and components of 3Es system are analyzed. Based on the analysis of causality diagram, GDP and industrial structure are selected as the target parameters of economy subsystem, energy consumption intensity is selected as the target parameter of energy subsystem, and the emissions of COD, ammonia nitrogen, SO2, andNOXand CO2emission intensity are selected as the target parameters of environment system. Fixed assets investment of three industries, total energy consumption, and investment in environmental pollution control are selected as the decision variables. By regarding the parameters of 3Es system optimization as fuzzy numbers, a fuzzy chance-constrained goal programming (FCCGP) model is constructed, and a hybrid intelligent algorithm including fuzzy simulation and genetic algorithm is proposed for solving it. The results of empirical analysis on Shandong province of China show that the FCCGP model can reflect the inherent relationship and evolution law of 3Es system and provide the effective decision-making support for 3Es system optimization.
Highlights
How to balance the economic development, energy security, and environmental protection to achieve sustainable development has been one of the greatest challenges of the 21st century
According to the 12th five-year plan of Shandong province, the annual average growth rate of GDP is 9%, the industrial structure in 2015 is 7: 48: 45, the annual average growth rate of fixed assets investment is set about 15%, energy consumption intensity and carbon emission intensity should drop by 17% and 18% from 2010, the emissions of chemical oxygen demand (COD), ammonia nitrogen, SO2, and nitrogen oxides (NOX) should drop by 12%, 13.3%, 14.9%, and 16.1%, respectively
In the fuzzy chance-constrained goal programming model (FCCGP) model, uncertain parameters are fuzzy variables, and fuzzy chance constraints are satisfied with certain confidence levels
Summary
How to balance the economic development, energy security, and environmental protection to achieve sustainable development has been one of the greatest challenges of the 21st century. Liu et al constructed a chance-constrained mixed-integer linear programming model with hybrid interval parameters for nonrenewable energy resources management under uncertainty, with an objective of maximizing economic return under constraints of resources availability and environmental regulations [12]. Cai et al developed an interactive decision support system based on an interval parameter linear programming model to aid decision makers in planning energy management systems [13]. Many interval and fuzzy programming models were constructed and applied for micro energy systems optimization, which were transformed into deterministic models with interaction parameters. A fuzzy chance-constrained goal programming model (FCCGP) and its hybrid intelligent algorithm are put forward for optimization of 3Es system, and an empirical analysis on Shandong province is conducted for application of the above model and algorithm.
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