325 The Economic Impact of Pediatric and Adolescent Gunshot Wound Mortality

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: Gunshot wounds (GSW) are the leading cause of pediatric/adolescent mortality in the United States. The total economic impact of lost productivity has not been previously quantified. METHODS: The CDC WONDER database was utilized to document GSW fatalities of individuals 19 years and younger between 2001-2021. The weighted net present value (NPV) of potential future lost income for each child was calculated based on the Social Security Administration’s estimated NPV of lifetime earnings at age 20, using a 4% discount rate, and factoring in updated US census data on education status, graduation rates, and wage-gaps. Each year’s total lost income was adjusted to 2022 USD using the CPI-W. Sensitivity analysis tested the robustness of our model parameters’ variability on our model results. RESULTS: 64,503 total pediatric/adolescent GSW mortalities have occurred since 2001. Total estimated NPV income loss in 2022 USD is $58.78 Billion. This correlates with an estimated loss to Social Security of $7.29 Billion. Sensitivity analyses found that changes in salary had the highest potential impact on the final outcomes. Overall, the worst-case income scenario (-20% change in base salary) showed an estimated $47 Billion economic loss in 2022 USD. A similar analysis for total pediatric mortality due to neurological disease showed an economic loss of $18.86 Billion. CONCLUSIONS: The economic impact of income lost due to pediatric GSW fatalities between 2001-2021 is estimated to be $58.78 billion, with minimum value of $47 billion after sensitivity analysis. This estimate likely undervalues the total economic impact of pediatric gun violence since it is based on median salaries and excludes medical treatment, long-term disability/morbidity, multiplier effects, or future offspring productivity. The total cost to society of pediatric GSW mortality significantly exceeds all neurologic-related mortality and is too high for physicians and policymakers to ignore.