1991 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study.

Abstract

This study establishes the Bonneville Power Administration's (BPA) planning basis for supplying electricity to BPA customers. The Loads and Resources Study is presented in three documents: (1) this summary of federal system and Pacific Northwest region loads and resources; (2) a technical appendix detailing forecasted Pacific Northwest economic trends and loads, and (3) a technical appendix detailing the loads and resources for each major Pacific Northwest generating utility. This analysis updates our 1990 study. BPS's long-range planning incorporates resource availability with a range of forecasted electrical consumption. The forecasted future electrical demands-firm loads--are subtracted from the projected capability of existing resources to determine whether BPA and the region will be surplus or deficit. If resources are greater than loads in any particular year or month, there is a surplus of energy and/or capacity, which BPA can sell to increase revenues. Conversely, if firm loads exceed available resources, there is a deficit of energy and/or capacity, then additional conservation, contract purchases, or generating resources will be needed to meet load growth. This study analyzes the Pacific Northwest's projected loads and available generating resources in two parts: (1) the loads and resources of the federal system, for which BPA is the marketing agency; and (2) the larger Pacific Northwest regional profile, which includes loads and resources in addition to the federal system. This study presents the federal system and regional analyses for five load forecasts: high, medium-high, medium, medium-low, and low. This analysis projects the yearly average energy consumption and resource availability for 1992- 2012.