2004 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study.

Abstract

The Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study (White Book), which is published annually by the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA), establishes one of the planning bases for supplying electricity to customers. The White Book contains projections of regional and Federal system load and resource capabilities, along with relevant definitions and explanations. The White Book also contains information obtained from formalized resource planning reports and data submittals including those from individual utilities, the Northwest Power and Conservation Council (Council), and the Pacific Northwest Utilities Conference Committee (PNUCC). The White Book is not an operational planning guide, nor is it used for determining BPA revenues, although the database that generates the data for the White Book analysis contributes to the development of BPA's inventory and ratemaking processes. Operation of the Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS) is based on a set of criteria different from that used for resource planning decisions. Operational planning is dependent upon real-time or near-term knowledge of system conditions that include expectations of river flows and runoff, market opportunities, availability of reservoir storage, energy exchanges, and other factors affecting the dynamics of operating a power system. The load resource balance of BPA and/or the region is determined by comparing resource availability to an expected level of total retail electricity consumption. Resources include projected energy capability plus contract purchases. Loads include a forecast of retail obligations plus contract obligations. Surplus energy is available when resources are greater than loads. This energy could be marketed to increase revenues. Energy deficits occur when resources are less than loads. These deficits could be met by any combination of the following: better-than-critical water conditions, demand-side management and conservation programs, permanent loss of loads due to economic conditions or closures, additional contract purchases, and/or the addition of new generating resources. The loads and resources analysis in this study simulates the operation of the power system under the current Pacific Northwest Coordination Agreement (PNCA). The PNCA defines the planning and operation of seventeen U.S. Pacific Northwest utilities and other parties with generating facilities within the region's hydroelectric (hydro) system. The hydroregulation study used for the 2004 White Book incorporates measures from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration Fisheries (NOAA Fisheries) Biological Opinion dated December 2000, and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's 2000 Biological Opinion (2000 FCRPS BiOps) for the Snake River and Columbia River projects. These measures include: (1) Increased flow augmentation for juvenile fish migrations in the Snake and Columbia rivers in the spring and summer; (2) Mandatory spill requirements at the Lower Snake and Columbia dams to provide for non-turbine passage routes for juvenile fish migrants; and (3) Additional flows for Kootenai River white sturgeon in the spring; The hydroregulation criteria for this analysis includes the following: (1) Detailed Operation Plan operation for Treaty reservoirs for Operating Year (OY) 2004; (2) PNCA planning criteria for OY 2004; and (3) Juvenile fish bypass spill levels for 2000 FCRPS BiOps implementation. The 2004 White Book is presented in two documents: (1) this summary document of Federal system and PNW region loads and resources, and (2) a technical appendix which presents regional loads, grouped by major PNW utility categories, and detailed contract and resource information. The technical appendix is available only in electronic form. Individual customer information for marketer contracts is not detailed due to confidentiality agreements. The 2004 White Book analysis updates the 2003 White Book. This analysis projects the yearly average energy consumption and resource availability for the study period, OY 2006 through 2015. The study shows the Federal system's and the region's expected monthly peak demand, monthly energy demand, monthly peak generating capability, and monthly energy generation for OY 2006, 2010, and 2015. The Federal system and regional monthly capacity surplus/deficit projections are summarized for the 10 operating years of the study period. This document analyzes the PNW's projected loads and available generating resources in two parts: (1) the loads and resources of the Federal system, for which BPA is the marketing agency; and (2) the larger PNW regional power system loads and resources that include the Federal system as well other PNW entities.