韓戰爆發前後蘇中(共)美互動之研究（1945-1951）：認知理論的觀點分析

Abstract

This thesis takes Robert Jervis’s Cognitive Theory which is the effort of international political psychology to figure out the triangle cognitions of China, U.S. and USSR during the war of Korea. And also discuss each diagnosis of others. Besides, it tries to solve the blind spots of traditional research of Korean war. There are four models which provoked by Robert Jervis. The first one is taking others behaviors as consolidation. The second one is highly valuated self influence or accounted itself as an important target. The third one is wishful thinking and the last one is Cognitive Dissonance Theory. Go through this thesis, we can find out that there are several mistakes of the triangle cognitions of China, U.S. and Russia during the war of Korea. The U.S., based on the wrong cognitive information which caused them failed in Korean war at the end of time. Furthermore, China analyzes U.S. from its point of view and neglects the complex situation of U.S. politics. It is because that China considers U.S. as an consolidate union. Russia makes the same mistakes as well. They believe that the success of Korean war could bring numerous benefits to themselves. They neglect the U.S. attitude toward the war and some objective factors. If we do believe in Robert Jervis’s Cognitive Theory, then it really means that we can avoid accept wrong cognitive information? And we do really can avoid some events which based on these wrong cognitions? From this thesis we can realize that the there are still exist other reasons and possibilities could caused the Korean war. The limited of Robert Jervis’s Cognitive Theory is to ignore the continuous factors of history. At last, this thesis takes the triangle interactions of China, U.S. and USSR during the war of Korea as an example and tries to go through by historical analysis to points out the wrong cognitions could influence national behaviors. By declassified some China’s documents, we know that there are a lot of improvements of documental research analysis. Furthermore, we also discover that combined with cognitive theory, constructive theory and game theory is a worthy research path for other researchers to give a try on it.