Abstract
<p>Rainfall in the maize cropping season (Oct-Apr) in the four northern districts of Malawi was examined in terms of seasonal fluctuation and spatial distribution, and data spanning 11 years were analyzed. Rainfall fluctuations in the 11-year period differed considerably among the four districts and the Extension Planning Areas (EPAs) showed high coefficients of variance (CVs) (16.9-93.7). The equation with the three-month rainfall (October, February, and April), i.e., Maize yield (kg/ha) in SH = 2.29 + 0.0042 × Oct rainfall – 0.0009 × Feb rainfall + 0.00045 × Apr rainfall (r<sup>2</sup> = 0.41), better explained maize yield in the 2013/14 season than the equation with total rainfall in the cropping season. Rainfall accounted for more than 41% of the total variation in maize yields of smallholder farmers (SHs). Rainfall in April was the most critical factor influencing maize and other crop yields. After the Farm Input Subsidy Programme (FISP) was implemented in 2005/06, maize yield became more dependent on rainfall. CV was higher in maize than in groundnut and sweet potato, indicating that maize is susceptible to rainfall fluctuations, and groundnut and sweet potato should be incorporated in farming as a countermeasure against unpredictable rainfall.</p>
Highlights
Increasing inorganic fertilizer prices, decreasing farm size, and declining soil fertility are the major constraints of current agricultural practice in Malawi
Almost all maize crops are grown without irrigation during the single rainy season that starts in October and ends in April; the crops are subject to rainfall variability that can be damaging when short dry spells occur during the critical flowering and early grain filling stages (Famine Early Warning Systems Network, 2007)
We examined rainfall patterns in the northern region of Malawi during the last 11 years from 2003 through 2013 and determined rainfall influence on maize yields of smallholder farmers (SHs)
Summary
Increasing inorganic fertilizer prices, decreasing farm size, and declining soil fertility are the major constraints of current agricultural practice in Malawi. A major factor affecting maize yield is chemical fertilizer application To this end, the government of Malawi has been offering chemical fertilizer subsidies to farmers since 2006. Almost all maize crops are grown without irrigation during the single rainy season that starts in October and ends in April; the crops are subject to rainfall variability that can be damaging when short dry spells occur during the critical flowering and early grain filling stages (Famine Early Warning Systems Network, 2007). Rainfed agriculture accounts for more than 95% of farmed land in sub-Saharan Africa, meaning that the effects of drought are likely to be more damaging than in developed nations where irrigation is more prevalent (Rockstrom & Falkenmarkac, 2000). We examined rainfall patterns in the northern region of Malawi during the last 11 years from 2003 through 2013 and determined rainfall influence on maize yields of smallholder farmers (SHs). Other common crops, such as cassava, sweet potato, finger millet, and groundnuts, were examined in terms of adaptability to rainfall fluctuations
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