1.30 Future Energy Directions

Smart energy systems for a sustainable future

Multi-input, Multi-output Hybrid Energy Systems

Energy systems are not only real-world systems; they are also one of the most important foundations of the modern world. Especially with the upcoming required changes to make more efficient use of energy and to shift towards a global use of sustainable, green energy sources, there are many challenges in mathematics and computer science. Thus, with the current increase in living standards, diminishing natural resources and environmental concerns, the management of energy production and use became one of the most important global issues today.

This chapter explores the integrated potential of future technological and social innovations enabling sharing in future energy systems. Energy systems around the world are undergoing a transformation toward more distributed, renewable-based configurations where new mechanisms for “sharing” are evolving. Future energy systems are likely to integrate a regionally appropriate mix of electricity generation that is dispatched, stored, and distributed through sophisticated platforms that enable sharing of electricity at multiple scales. Sharing in future energy systems has the potential to radically disrupt relationships governing utilities, energy consumers, and distributed electricity generation at the individual and household levels, at the community and organizational levels, and at the regional, state, national, and even international levels. Innovations may allow formerly passive consumers to become actively engaged in producing and managing electricity which could shift the locus of organizational decision making and control away from traditional utilities. Prosumers who can “share” their electricity may be empowered to change the rules that have governed their relationships with utilities for the past century. We consider a potential “death spiral of utilities’ business model” as new sharing platforms, including community-level energy cooperatives, emerge to replace the conventional approach to managing and distributing energy. This chapter also explores how future energy sharing might connect with the concept of energy democracy.

In line with the Swedish target of carbon neutrality by 2045, the municipality of Växjö in Kronoberg County has set its own target to be carbon neutral in 2030. Currently, the Municipality's partially decentralized energy system relies heavily on interconnected electricity supply from the national grid, and fuels imports from other parts of Sweden. Under this circumstance, several concerns arise, including: in which ways future demand changes induce supply changes, and whether a future carbon-neutral energy system will be less costly in a sustained-electricity supply condition. In this study, techno-economic evaluations are conducted for different carbon-neutral scenarios for Växjö’s future energy system in 2030 and 2050, using an hour-by-hour dynamic energy simulation tool of EnergyPLAN. Projections for the future energy demands for Växjö were developed and modeled, based on the development strategies and on the national sustainable future scenarios in Sweden. Results for the Växjö’s carbon-neutral scenarios showed that the current energy system is sufficient to satisfy future heat demand. However, fulfilling demands of electricity for all sectors and fuels for transport and industry is a challenge. In the short term and at increased energy demand and price, being carbon neutral is technically viable without major changes in energy supply technologies. However, in the long term, investment for intermittent renewable energy resources, together with carbon capture and storage is considered to be viable financially. Therefore, planning for a carbon-neutral Växjö based on local investments showed to be a feasible strategy.

Introduction: To date, a variety of studies have been published on the topic of long term energy system transition. Most studies on future energy systems, however, have a shorter time frame or adopt a supranational focus (e.g. the Energy Roadmap, 2011 or the World Energy Outlook, 2015). It then constitutes a sincere challenge to perform a national energy system transition study with as time horizon 2050 and covering a far-reaching transformation of the energy system. VITO, together with the FPB (Federal Planning Bureau) and ICEDD, performed a study to scrutinise the transition of the Belgian national energy system towards a future mix entirely based on renewable energy sources. The focus on renewable energy sources and on building a national energy system completely running on renewable energy can be traced back to three main concerns: – Climate change: Renewable energy sources (RES) are a major instrument in the fight against climate change as RES do not release (net) greenhouse gas emissions. – Security...

We would like to express our great pleasure in welcoming you to the GECCO Workshop on Green and Efficient Energy Applications of Genetic and Evolutionary Computation (GreenGEC Workshop'14), held in conjunction with the GECCO 2014 International Conference. A main characteristic of the studies in the area of green and energy-efficient applications is the strong connection with real-world environments and constraints. As such, there is only little place for errors and leading edge algorithms alone can be used. The potential impact and outcomes are also of foremost importance. Global increases in living standards, diminishing natural resources and environmental concerns place energy amongst the most important global issues today. On the consumer side, there is an increasing need for more efficient, uses of energy, be it in large-scale computing systems and data warehouses, in homes or in office buildings. On the producer side, there is a push toward the use of sustainable, green, energy sources, which often come in the form of less reliable sources such as wind energy. In addition, future energy systems are often envisioned to be smart, consisting of massive amounts of small generators, such as solar panels, located at consumers, effectively turning consumers into potential producers whenever they have a surplus of energy. The management, control and planning of, and efficient use of energy in (future) energy systems brings about many important challenges. Energy systems are not only real-world systems, they are also one of the most important foundations of the modern world. Especially with the upcoming required changes to make more efficient use of energy and to shift towards a global use of sustainable, green energy sources, there are many challenges in mathematics and computer science. Real-world challenges, such as those arising in (future) energy systems, are typically highly complex because of the many aspects to be considered that are often disregarded in theoretical research such as dynamic changes, uncertainty and multiple objectives. In many situations therefore, problem-specific algorithms are infeasible or impractical. Instead, flexible and powerful approaches such as evolutionary algorithms (EAs) can often provide viable solutions. Typical real-world challenges that are addressed by EAs are of the optimization type. This covers the use of EAs to optimize issues ranging from energy consumption (e.g. scheduling, memory/storage management, communication protocols, smart sensors, etc.) to the planning and design of energy systems at many levels, ranging from small printed circuit boards to entire transmission networks.

Various energy sources are positioned as sustainable, assuming this may elicit positive evaluations of these sources, particularly among people who care about nature and the environment (i.e. have strong biospheric values). For example, the gas industry and some politicians position gas as a relatively clean fossil fuel and as a transition fuel towards future sustainable energy systems. But will people, particularly those who strongly endorse biospheric values, positively evaluate every energy development that is promoted as sustainable? We studied how sustainability claims affect evaluations of gas in the Netherlands. In line with what is commonly stated in practice, in a scenario study, we either presented natural gas as a relatively clean fossil fuel in current energy systems, or as a transition fuel in future energy systems with an increased share of renewables. Interestingly, stronger biospheric values were not associated with more positive evaluations of natural gas in either of these conditions. Yet, the stronger their biospheric values, the more positively respondents evaluated gas innovations, namely green gas and power-to-gas, which do not rely on fossil fuels. The findings demonstrate that merely sustainability claims may not allay the concerns that people have about the environmental consequences of some energy developments.

Software is the key enabling technology (KET) as digitalization is cross-cutting future energy systems spanning the production sites, distribution networks, and consumers particularly in electricity smart grids. In this paper, we identify systematically what particular software competencies are required in the future energy systems focusing on electricity system smart grids. The realizations of that can then be roadmapped to specific software capabilities of the different future ‘software houses’ across the networks. Our instrumental method is software competence development scenario path construction with environmental scanning of the related systems elements. The vision of future software-enabled smart energy systems with software houses is mapped with the already progressing scenarios of energy systems transitions on the one hand coupled with the technology foresight of software on the other hand. Grounding on the Smart Grid Reference Architecture Model (SGAM), it tabulates the distinguished software competencies and attributes them to the different parties—including customers/consumers (Internet of People, IoP)—involved in future smart energy systems. The resulting designations can then be used to recognize and measure the necessary software competencies (e.g., fog computing) in order to be able to develop them in-house, or for instance to partner with software companies, depending on the future desirability. Software-intensive systems development competence becomes one of the key success factors for such cyber-physical-social systems (CPSS). Further futures research work is chartered with the Futures Map frame. This paper contributes preliminarily toward that by identifying pictures of the software-enabled futures and the connecting software competence-based scenario paths.

BackgroundThis paper seeks to explore the roles of distribution system operators (DSOs) in future energy systems. Measures to combat climate change have led to a transition in the energy sector, where old system fundamentals are becoming obsolete, which results in changing rules for incumbent actors, such as DSOs. These actors must uphold heavily regulated operations within their distribution networks, while landscape trends are changing with a growing number of prosumers and distributed energy resources. To understand these future roles and increase the preparedness for future scenarios and facilitate thinking beyond current lock-ins, action-oriented workshops were held with two Swedish DSOs, departing from pre-developed future imaginaries, structured through transition theory. Researchers were actively involved in the workshops, to guide the participants in the discussions and to provide additional knowledge from transition processes. This was structured through transition theory, mainly in terms of linking transition management fundamentals to the topics in the workshops and basing the workshop discussions on an imagined future socio-technical system-wide approach using four focus areas.ResultsResults included descriptions of roles within future energy systems and their connection to specified value logics from different target groups which would, from the DSO perspective, create value in a future energy system. Roles included sustainable developer, facilitator for increased collaboration, balancing actor, and communicator. In addition, competence requirements were outlined concerning the described roles. The future logic was also described in a conceptual value model for an active DSO in a prosumer-oriented energy system, creating value in all different value logics. Moreover, it provided the steps necessary to develop a pathway aimed at the transformation of DSOs.ConclusionsThe study provided a constructive approach for DSOs to prepare for a future, more prosumer-oriented and flexible energy system, avoiding being locked in current system thinking and focusing on necessary roles and competencies suitable for a DSO. In addition, the utilization of the value logics approach helped place the prosumers in a differentiated manner, which can have implications for strategies among DSOs to create the necessary relations and collaborations for an efficient and value-creating future energy system.

The transition of the energy system is a complex process, which does not only need a switch from fossil to renewable energy carriers, but a smart interaction of the different renewable energy options as well. Bioenergy plays a central role in this transition because it is multifunctional and can provide heat, power, and transport fuels independent from the actual weather situation. On the other hand, the resource base for bioenergy is limited. Therefore the “how” of bioenergy utilization is crucial. In a future energy system, the energy supply should be environmental-friendly, cost-efficient, with a high share of renewable energy and the security of energy supply should be guaranteed at any time needed. Hence, the role of bioenergy has to change dramatically from a monovalent all-year-long supply system to a smart, flexible energy source, which can fill the gaps when other renewables are not available in the required amount or quality. To figure out the future potential of bioenergy in renewable energy-based systems, it is necessary to consider three different major characteristics: Flexible and controllable: With regard to the ongoing energy transition, electricity from biomass can be already properly targeted for the transition of the power market. For instance, bioenergy can guarantee sufficient system services including frequency control, reactive power or congestion management for the power grid, and compensation of fluctuating renewable energies in the energy system, to name but a few. But technology development is still needed for many plants to reach the necessary flexibility. Some project groups in this issue present their results on the development of systems for the controllable generation of electricity by biogas plants to meet consumer demands. However, flexible heat provision is expected to take a longer time to be implemented. Combinable: The success of a future renewable energy system will depend in particular on the integration and quality of the combination of all renewable energies. Promising concepts are, e.g., regional hybrid systems for heat provision with solar thermal energy and PV, respectively with solid biomass-based heating systems or power-to-gas, which can provide flexible energy in different sectors. Further synergies from direct coupling of BtL- and PtL-plants can be expected. Sustainable: Last but not least, bioenergy is, indeed, controversially debated due to restrictions concerning the rising demand in resources for food and animal feed, as well as efforts to conserve biodiversity. To be sustainable, energy supply from biomass must focus on the efficient use of biomass, especially of biogenic residues, by-products, and waste, taking into consideration its quantities and qualities and/or biomass with high greenhouse gas savings and safeguards for other risks such as soil conservation, biodiversity conservation, or food security as well. In the end, within the “team“ of renewables, the strengths of the single renewables (including storage capacity and versatility of bioenergy or high quantities of wind and sun) have to fill the gaps of the other renewables (e.g., limited bioenergy quantities or fluctuating output of wind and solar energy) and the synergy potentials should be used. Some major achievements to develop bioenergy are published in this issue of Chemical Engineering & Technology. The majority of the research and demonstration results was achieved in the research program “Biomass Energy Use” funded by the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy in Germany, which shows the pioneering role of Germany in the energy transition (“Energiewende”) and made this impressive contribution possible. We hope you will enjoy reading this issue and get inspiring inside views of the current status and an outlook of bioenergy technology. Daniela Thrän and Diana Pfeiffer Department of Bioenergy Systems, DBFZ Deutsches Biomasseforschungszentrum gGmbH, Head of Department of Bioenergy, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Bioenergy Systems, University of Leipzig

Flexible Carbon Capture and Utilization technologies in future energy systems and the utilization pathways of captured CO2

A scenario analysis of future energy systems based on an energy flow model represented as functionals of technology options

In this paper a model of a future combined cyber-physical energy system is introduced. We view such systems as the intertwined physical-cyber network interconnections of many non-uniform components, such as diverse energy sources and different classes of energy users, equipped with their own local cyber. This modeling approach is qualitatively different from the currently used models that do not explicitly account for the effects of sensing and communications. The proposed approach is based, instead, on representing all physical components as modules interconnected by means of an electric network. However, not all physical components can be modeled from first principles because of the extreme non-uniformity and the complexity of various classes of components. Instead, many components and/or groups of components have to be monitored and their models have to be identified using extensive signal processing, sensing, and model identification. We illustrate such combined cyber-physical models of key components, and use these to introduce a structure preserving model of a cyber-physical infrastructure of the interconnected system. Such a model becomes a basis for deciding what to sense and at which rate, what level of data mining is needed for which (groups of) physical modules to achieve predictable performance for cyber-physical future energy systems. This model rests on the premise that the performance of future energy systems can be shaped in major ways by means of broadly available cyber technologies. In order to make the most out of the available cyber technologies, the first step is to establish models which capture these interdependencies. This paper is a step in such direction.

Most analyses of the future European energy system conclude that in order to achieve energy and climate change policy goals it will be necessary to ramp up the use of renewable energy sources. The stochastic nature of those energies, together with other sources of shortand long-term uncertainty, already have significant impacts in current energy systems operation and planning, and it is expected that future energy systems will be forced to become increasingly flexible in order to cope with these challenges. Therefore, policy makers need to consider issues such as the effects of intermittent energy sources on the reliability and adequacy of the energy system, the impacts of rules governing the curtailment or storage of energy, or how much backup dispatchable capacity may be required to guarantee that energy demand is safely met. Many of these questions are typically addressed by detailed models of the electric power sector with a high level of technological and temporal resolution. This report describes one of such models developed by the JRC's Institute for Energy and Transport: Dispa-SET 2.0, a unit commitment and dispatch model of the European power system aimed at representing with a high level of detail the short-term operation of large-scale power systems. The new model is an updated version of Dispa-SET 1.0, in use at the JRC since 2009. Table of