ПОТЕНЦИАЛЬНЫЕ ВОЗМОЖНОСТИ ПРОНИКНОВЕНИЯ ИТАЛЬЯНСКОГО ПРУСА В СУБЪЕКТЫ РОССИЙСКОЙ ФЕДЕРАЦИИ В XXI ВЕКЕ В СВЯЗИ С НАБЛЮДАЕМЫМИ И ОЖИДАЕМЫМИ ИЗМЕНЕНИЯМИ КЛИМАТА

Abstract

Estimates of the possibility of invasion of the dangerous herd pest the Italian locust (Calliptamus italicus L.) into various constituent entities of the Russian Federation are carried out. For that the calculations of the climatic predictor values and further modeling of the Italian locust climatic range were made for the periods 1951-1970 and 1991-2010, using the real climatic data, and for the periods of the middle and end of the XXI century (2035-2054 and 2080-2099) relative to the period 1981-2000. The future climate data were calculated on the base of the average model climate for 31 CMIP5 models with the development of a “moderate” scenario of anthropogenic impact on the Earth’s climate system RCP4.5. According to the data obtained, the climatic range of the Italian locust will expand significantly into the more northern and northeastern regions of our country, and individual foci can appear in the eastern, including Far Eastern, regions by the middle and the end of the XXI century. The expansion of the real range of Calliptamus italicus L., observed at the beginning of the XXI century, associated with the already occurred change in climatic conditions, is consistent with model calculations, and many regions of Russia that are part of the potential climatic model range of this locust pest have already become favorable for its location. Therefore it is necessary to monitor constantly the status of pest populations in areas adjacent to the northern and eastern borders of its range.