Прогноз валютной пары USD/RUB в краткосрочном периоде

Abstract

The article provides a forecast of the USD/RUB currency pair based on the equation of a linear downward trend. The aim of the research is forecasting the USD/RUB currency pair to determine the effectiveness of Russia's foreign economic activity and the real incomes of the country's population in the future, which makes the research relevant. The research is carried out using the following scientific methods: analysis, synthesis, monographic (description of Russian macroeconomics), statistical (identification of trends, calculation of correlation coefficients, graphic). The research is based on statistical data on the economic indicators of the Russian Federation: the USD/RUB currency pair, exports, imports, trade balance, the consumer price index, the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the M2 monetary aggregate, the US dollar index, the Moscow Exchange Index (IMOEX). The USD/RUB currency pair is the main macroeconomic indicator influenced by Russian foreign economic factors: trade balance, inflation, key interest rate, money supply, US dollar index, Moscow Exchange Index (IMOEX). In the short term, the connection of the USD/RUB currency pair with the presented macroeconomic indicators has weakened. Therefore, the forecast of the exchange rate of the Russian ruble against the US dollar should be made on the basis of the trend equation. It has been established that, in the short term, the USD/RUB currency pair has the potential to decline, which is negative for exporters, but positive for the real incomes of the country's population. The sharp decline in the USD/RUB currency pair in recent months has been caused by the regulatory and legal currency regulation in the Russian Federation. It implies the following measures: restrictions on the issuance of US dollars from foreign currency deposits and accounts of citizens, on the sale of US dollars by banks to the public, on the transfer of US dollars abroad; high commissions for the purchase of US dollars on the stock exchange; restrictions on short sales of currencies on the stock exchange; mandatory sale of foreign exchange earnings by exporters; the use of Russian rubles in settlements for natural gas supplied to unfriendly countries; tight monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. The cancellation of these regulatory and legal measures of currency regulation will return the long-term trend of weakening of the Russian ruble against the US dollar.