Research On Oil Price’s Influential Factors and The Dynamic Relationship Among Them

Abstract

In order to clarify the oil price’s fluctuation phenomenon in the long term, researchers construct SVAR model with these five factors aggregate supply of crude oil, economic growth rate of China, American commercial inventory for crude oil, US dollar index, and financial speculation ratio. The result shows that the economic growth rate of China, US dollar index, and aggregate supply of crude oil are significant in long term. There is bidirectional granger causality relationship between the Chinese economic growth rate and oil price. The US dollar index is the granger cause of China’s economic growth rate. Consequently, it is so pressing for China to achieve the security of both energy and economy. The contribution of this paper is taking the Chinese economic growth rate as a dependent factor. KeywordsOil Price; Economic Growth Rate of China ; US Dollar Index; SVAR; Granger Causality Test