Արտատարածաշրջանային «ուժային կենտրոնների» քաղաքականությունը Հարավային Կովկասի անվտանգային միջավայրի կերպափոխման պայմաններում / The policy of extra-regional “power centers” in the process of transformation of the security environment in the South Caucasus

Abstract

After the 2020 war (the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War), the South Caucasus region entered a period of the collapse of the fragile regional security system architecture shaped while maintaining the status quo, and the serious transformation of the security environment in the region. This is stipulated by several factors ensuing, among other things, from the geopolitical and geostrategic processes taking place in other regions, in particular, the Russia – Ukraine conflict and the aggravation of relations between Russia and the West. Because of these processes, the West’s urge to weaken Russia has increased both in political (limiting Russia’s zone of influence, including in traditionally “pro–Russian” regions, such as the South Caucasus and Central Asia) and economical aspects, limiting Russia’s role as a supplier of hydrocarbon energy carriers and the East-West transit corridor. This has led to a significant decrease in the level of Russia’s limiting influence in the South Caucasus, and the emergence of serious opportunities to reinvigorate their policy in this region both for Turkey, and extra-regional global actors, such as the United States, the European Union, China and India. Each of those pursues its own geo­strategic and geo-economic interests here, and throughout the process is acting in their own traditional manner, which has been developed in the system of implementing their national foreign policy. According to the analysis carried out, if the activity of the United States’ and the European Union’s policies in the South Caucasus depends on the factors of geopolitical rivalry between the West and Russia, then the activation of China’s and India’s policies largely comes from the activation of the processes of unblocking regional communications, resulting in the occurrence of an alternative to the northern (Russian) corridor, the use of which in greatly restricted due to the Russia – Ukraine conflict. In addition, it becomes imperative for Armenia, in the process of transforming the security environment in the South Caucasus, to indemnify for the decrease in the efficiency of deterrents conditioned solely by the geopolitical presence of the Russian Federation, without changing the foreign policy.