衝突危険度による洋上複合間隔ルートの安全性評価-I : NOPACルートの垂直方向の衝突危険度

Abstract

This paper describes the method and results of safety assessment for the North Pacific (NOPAC) composite separation route system. The collision risk due to loss of vertical separation is estimated based on the observation data on the navigation performance of aircraft and traffic flow characteristics. In order to estimate various model parameters of the collision risk model(Reich model), the data on the tracks obtained by an air route surveillance radar(ARSR) and the traffic information extracted from the flight progress(flight plan) data were used for analyses. The result indicated that the vertical collision risk in the route system is less than the target level of safety(TLS) of the ICAO, i.e., 2.5×10^<-9> [fatal accidents/flying hour].