ПРОГНОЗУВАННЯ ЕФЕКТИВНОСТІ ФІНАНСОВОЇ ПОЛІТИКИ В УМОВАХ ЗАГОСТРЕННЯ КРИЗОВИХ ЯВИЩ В ЕКОНОМІЦІ ВНАСЛІДОК ПАНДЕМІЇ COVID-19

Abstract

The article substantiates that in the context of solving the problem of improving the forms and methods of fiscal influence on the economy, planning strategic directions of fiscal policy should be based on the principles of non-discredit regulation, which is achieved if changes in tax revenues and government transfers depend on GDP. To this end, a correlation-regression analysis of the impact of GDP on tax revenues to the consolidated budget, where the results of the regression model are used to forecast the revenue side of the budget in different scenarios of economic development in a pandemic. The negative influence of factors is marked: a significant drop in effective demand of the population; significant unemployment due to the return of workers, mass layoffs; mass bankruptcy of medium and small businesses; deep protracted recession; accelerating inflation. To build a regression model, two factors were selected that are considered as key factors influencing the dynamics of the revenue side: gross domestic product, consumer price index. The forecast was based on actual data for the period 2007-2019. The calculations showed that the growth rate of tax revenues to the budget of Ukraine will decrease significantly due to the impact of the crisis caused by the pandemic. In particular, under the optimistic forecast, tax revenues will increase by more than eight percent in 2020, and under the pessimistic forecast will decrease by seven percent. In 2021, the gap between the pessimistic and optimistic scenarios has narrowed significantly and according to calculations, we can expect a slight increase in tax payments by twelve percent. The level of redistribution will also decrease to about twenty-five percent. It is proved that when building a model of fiscal regulation, the impact of certain types of taxes on the revenue side of the budget, in particular, personal income tax and value added tax, should be taken into account. It is established that the crisis phenomena, accompanied by bankruptcy and closure of business entities, and hence an increase in the number of laid off employees, will lead to a decrease in budget revenues from personal income tax. The results of forecast calculations show that this source of revenue should be expected to decrease by at least ten percent, and under the pessimistic scenario - the decline in revenues from this tax in 2020 could reach twenty percent. It is determined that the negative dynamics of VAT revenues can be observed only in the pessimistic scenario, and the decrease is insignificant - about five percent. Under the optimistic scenario, revenues will increase by about twenty percent in 2020 and thirty-five percent in 2021 compared to 2019. It was found that the most «vulnerable» to the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic is the article of personal income tax revenues, which, accordingly, requires the development of a certain algorithm of measures to create sufficient fiscal incentives to minimize the negative consequences.