Банковское розничное кредитование в условиях пандемии COVID-19 и санкционных ограничений: особенности Дальнего Востока России

Abstract

In the context of the pandemic of the new coronavirus infection (COVID-19) and the aggravation of the sanctions burden caused by the special military operation of the Russian Federation in the territories of Ukraine, the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Lugansk People’s Republic, household lending was at particular risk. The article examines the dynamics and structure of lending to individuals for 2015–2022 both in Russia as a whole and on the example of a large macroregion, which is the Russian Far East. To identify statistical patterns, general scientific methods based on official statistics published by the Bank of Russia were used. It is shown that in the Far East, as well as in the country as a whole, both segments of retail lending (mortgage and consumer loans) reacted negatively to the «pandemic» crisis of 2020 (April) and to the «sanctions» crisis of 2022 (March – April), but the severity of the reaction was different. The main factor in the decline in retail lending in April 2020 was the fall in consumer lending, the same factor explained the fall in retail lending by 100% in March 2022, but in April 2022, 90% of the fall in retail lending was explained by the decline in mortgage housing lending. Thanks to the reduction by the Bank of Russia of the key rate and, accordingly, the weighted average rates of bank lending, the provision of credit holidays, mass refinancing and restructuring of loans, the Russian government managed to dampen the impact of shocks on the parameters of the Far Eastern retail credit market. As a result, in 2020–2021, the volume of lending to the population of the Far East increased by 54.9% (compared to an increase of 48.5% in the Russian Federation as a whole), while the share of overdue loans in the Far Eastern subjects of the Russian Federation was not only lower than the average Russian indicator, but also decreased faster