ВНЕСОК COVID-19 В ПОТЕНЦІЙНІ ЕКОНОМІЧНІ ВТРАТИ ВРП ПРИЧОРНОМОРСЬКОГО ЕКОНОМІЧНОГО РЕГІОНУ

Abstract

The urgency of the study is related to the extremely devastating impact of the COVID-19 pandemic not only on the world economy, but also on the socio-economic situation of Ukraine, in particular the Black Sea economic region. The aim of the article is to study the contribution of the COVID-19 pandemic to the potential economic losses of the Black Sea Economic Region. The subject of the study is to assess the potential economic losses for the FER economy from premature mortality in the age group 16–59 years. Research method – the method of potential demography. The forecast of economic decline rates in Europe and Central Asia, in particular in Ukraine, based on the results of the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic and the dynamics of changes in Ukraine's real GDP are analyzed. The proportion of people who died of COVID-19 in the total number of people who fell ill in some countries, Ukraine and the Black Sea economic region was calculated. The calculation of potential losses in man-years in the Black Sea economic region from premature mortality from COVID-19 in the age group 16–59 years, in particular in terms of its components. The calculation of potential economic losses in the Black Sea economic region due to premature mortality from COVID-19 in the age group 16–59 years, in particular in terms of its components. The contribution of COVID-19 to the potential economic losses of GRPs of the Black Sea Economic Region and Ukraine is calculated. It is hypothesized that the fall in real GRP of Ukraine due to the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic could be reduced to 3,97%, and for FER to – 5,65%, subject to full vaccination of the population of Ukraine, increase funding for health care motivation of the population to maintain health, introduction of health insurance, etc. It is proposed to change the vector of public policy from the principle of paternalism to libertarian paternalism with the parallel introduction of a motivational mechanism for maintaining and promoting health for all categories of the population, especially the economically active.