Abstract
This study proposed an intervention ARIMA model as a method for price prediction, focusing on Korean beef and imported beef among livestock prices. In order to determine whether time series data from government policies, infectious diseases and economic shocks were affected, the Korea-US FTA, the Solicitation Ban Act, the adjustment of the 100,000won cap on agricultural futures, and the Corona 19 pandemic were analyzed. As a result of the analysis, it was found that the Korea-US FTA, the Anti-Solicitation Act, the adjustment of the 100,000won cap for agricultural product futures, and the Corona 19 pandemic had a statistically significant effect, and in particular, it was found to have increased significantly after the Corona 19 pandemic occurred. This study analyzed the effect of intervention events on price time series and quantitatively analyzed the effect of multiple interventions on livestock product time series data. It can be used to predict the price of livestock products in the future and is expected to be useful for verifying the monthly average price forecast per kg.
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