Abstract
This study presents an objective method to generate a stable and continuous time series by interpolating and predicting the Seoul prime office price time series. The transaction price time series is important for calculating ROC and capitalization rate in the real estate investment market. It is also essential information for monitoring the market, to establish an investment strategy or creating a benchmark index for rational performance evaluation. The linear interpolation was found to be the most efficient method for interpolating the price time series. The results of analysis using an ETS model showed that the price time series varied with determinants such as level, trend, and seasonality; thus the time series trends of transaction prices for the three major business districts and the other district could be analyzed and forecast by the time series of the decomposed factors. In addition, based on the time series of calculated transaction prices for the three major business districts and the other district, a time series of the average price of Seoul prime offices could be generated. As a result of decomposing this time series through the ETS model, it was found that the transaction price time series rose sharply until 2008 and then turned into a pattern degressive increase. The price time series shows a fixed seasonality in four-year intervals, and it is expected that the time series will enter a new cycle after 3Q of 2015 and that the prices of Seoul prime offices will be adjusted for the next two to three years.
Published Version (
Free)
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call