파리협정 제6.4조 지속가능발전메커니즘의 베이스라인 방법론 분석과 우리나라 협상 입장 연구

Abstract

Under article 6 of the Paris Agreement, parties are allowed flexible methods to meet their nationally determined contribution (NDC) target. Article 6.4 provides one flexible scheme, the sustainable development mechanism (SDM), by establishing a baseline‐and‐crediting‐based market mechanism. Since 2016, international negotiation on elaboration of the rules․modalities․procedures for the SDM has been undertaken as part of the Paris rule book. In the negotiation, an essential issue is the baseline methodology to be adopted or prioritized of four representative methodologies of i) business‐as‐usual (BAU)‐based methodology, ii) historical emission methodology, iii) performance‐based methodology, and iv) best‐available technology (BAT) methodology. Currently, developed countries prefer BAT and performance‐based methodologies. On the contrary, developing countries support inclusion of BAU and historical emission methodologies. The Korean government has taken a stance in support of BAU methodology. Under this context, this paper attempts to analyze the characteristics of each methodology on the basis of four elements that determine balanced operation of the crediting‐based market mechanism and the merits and demerits of each methodology. With analytical results, this paper provides policy implications for Korea’s future negotiation.