我国城市化滞后于工业化状况的研究—基于全国31个省级行政单位面板数据的实证分析

Abstract

改革开放以来，我国工业化的发展取得了令人瞩目的成就，而城市化的发展则是严重滞后于工业化，这种偏差严重制约了我国的经济增长。为我国妥善解决二者在经济发展中的矛盾、更好地发挥城市化和工业化对经济增长的引擎作用，首要的问题是要分析我国城市化滞后于工业化的状况。本文基于城市化和工业化一般关系的理论基础，首先对城市化滞后于工业化的状况进行了描述性统计分析，随后利用固定效应变系数面板数据模型考察二者对经济增长的作用以及二者之间的关系，并根据城市化和工业化的发展状况进行分类分析。结果表明：我国的城市化发展在当前逐渐步入正常发展轨道，但是城市化滞后于工业化的状况仍然显著地存在，城市化的发展对经济增长的作用并不显著；城市化的发展与工业化的发展之间存在的诸多矛盾制约了城市化、工业化与经济增长的均衡发展；北京和上海是工业化推动城市化，进而驱动经济增长的良好范本；四川省和海南省利用其资源禀赋优势已经探索出了适合本省的经济发展方式，值得其他省级行政单位借鉴。 Since the reform and opening-up of China, the development of industrialization has made remarkable achievements, whereas the development of urbanization has been seriously lagging behind industrialization, which has severely restricted the economic growth. Aiming at properly resolving the contradictions between urbanization and industrialization in economic development and better playing the role of urbanization and industrialization on economic growth, the primary issue is to analyze the status that urbanization lags behind industrialization. Based on the theoretical relationship between urbanization and industrialization, this paper first carries a descriptive statistical analysis on the status referred above, and subsequently investigates their actual relationship and the role of urbanization and industrialization on economic growth by means of fixed-effects variable-coefficient panel data model. Then, according to the classified analysis on the development status of urbanization and industrialization, the results are shown below. 1) Although the present urbanization gradually steps into the track of normal development, it is significant that urbanization lags behind industrialization and cannot effectively promote economic development. 2) Many contradictions between urbanization and industrialization have restricted the balanced development of urbanization, industrialization and economic growth. 3) The cities of Beijing and Shanghai are good models of economic growth promoted by industrialization and urbanization. 4) Sichuan Province and Hainan Province have explored the suitable economic development pattern by making the advantage of its resources and it is worth to be used for reference by other provin-cial administrative units.