Опыт применения ГИС для анализа конфликтного потенциала территории: на примере вооруженного конфликта в Южном Судане после провозглашения им независимости (2011–2022 гг.)

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to highlight the key factors that explain the nature and causes of permanent interreligious and interethnic conflicts in South Sudan in 2011–2022 and using them to classify the territories of South Sudan according to conflict potential. The article describes the experience of using geographic information systems to analyze key factors (ethnic composition of the population, number of refugees, food security index and oil infrastructure) that make up the territory’s conflict potential (in connection with the armed conflict in South Sudan after its declaration of independence). A comprehensive study of historical, demographic, ethnic, religious, economic and social factors that became the causes of the conflict, allows understanding the dynamics of economic processes in Sudan, and applying the experience gained when taking into account other conflicts in the region, including new possible options in Sudan and South Sudan. The author identifies the most conflict-prone areas of South Sudan — Manyo, Maiwut, Melut and Bayley in the Upper Nile states, in which there are interethnic conflicts between the Nuer and Shilluk tribes, low levels of food security, as well as developing oil reserves and oil pipelines. The results of the study can be used in the process of rapid response and proactive actions aimed at preventing crisis situations in those regions of South Sudan where the risk of emerging more complex problems is high.