НЕКОТОРЫЕ ДЕМОГРАФИЧЕСКИЕ ПОКАЗАТЕЛИ РОССИИ В 2000-2021 ГОДЫ

Abstract

Significance. Fertility and mortality analysis helps identify major demographic risk zones. Recently, due to intensive development of digitalization in Russia, a lot of statistical information has become publicly available. Its generalization and analysis are necessary for developing social programs aimed at copying with the identified risk factors and improving the demographic situation. Analysis of the number of women of active reproductive age, total fertility rate, life expectancy, and gender-specific mortality rates are important steps in this direction. Significance of the topic is emphasized by the development and implementation of the national project "Demography" in the Russian Federation in 2019-2024. The purpose of the study was to implement a comparative and dynamic analysis of demographic indicators in Russia to identify risk zones and take effective measures to improve the situation. Material and methods. The analysis uses WHO data, databases and collections of Rosstat and the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, information on implementing the national project "Demography". A database has been developed in the licensed statistical package IBM SPSS Statistics-19. A comparative analysis of independent groups of indicators has been undertaken using the Mann-Whitney U-test, related groups – using the Wilcoxon test; while the trend in indicators was determined by Kendall’s Tau coefficient of correlation, graphical analysis was carried out in MS Excel-2013. Results. The determined trends in dynamics show that the pre and post-working age population is naturally increasing, that is, according to these indicators, the goals of the national project are being achieved. The number of women of reproductive age during the study period shows a decreasing trend, which was undoubtedly influenced by the “Russian cross” of the 90s of the last century, when fertility decreased and mortality increased almost twice compared to the end of the 80s. Negative values of the natural growth rate indicate that fertility is lower than mortality during those years. From 2000 to 2015, the trend was positive, the natural growth rate increased while since 2015 the trend was decreasing. The total fertility rate has been declining since 2015. In reality, in 2015, less than 18 children were born to 10 women in Russia, in 2021 – only 15 children, which is below the population replacement level. Conclusion. One of the promising directions for improving the situation is to adopt effective social measures to increase fertility in young women, to increase the total fertility rate, as well as to develop a promising industrial production and incentive programs to prevent the outflow of young population.