기후변화 시나리오에 의한 중부지방소나무의 연도별 적지분포 변화 예측

Abstract

Division of Forest Ecology, Korea Forest Research Institute, Seoul 130-712, Koera(Received February 26, 2014; Revised March 26, 2014; Accepted March 28, 2014)ABSTRACTThis study was conducted to predict the changes of yearly productive area distribution for pinusdensiflora under climate change scenario. For this, site index equations by ecoprovinces were firstdeveloped using environmental factors. Using the large data set from both a digital forest site mapand a climatic map, a total of 48 environmental factors including 19 climatic variables were regressedon site index to develop site index equations. Two climate change scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5,were then applied to the developed site index equations and the distribution of productive areas forpinus densiflora were predicted from 2020 to 2100 years in 10-year intervals. The results from thisstudy show that the distribution of productive areas for pinus densiflora generally decreases as timepasses. It was also found that the productive area distribution of Pinus densiflora is different over timeunder two climate change scenarios. The RCP 8.5 which is more extreme climate change scenarioshowed much more decreased distribution of productive areas than the RCP 4.5. It is expected thatthe study results on the amount and distribution of productive areas over time for pinus densifloraunder climate change scenarios could provide valuable information necessary for the policies ofsuitable species on a site.Key words : Climatic change scenario, Digital site map, Climatic map, Site index equation, Productive area