Геоинформационный мониторинг демографических процессов в регионах юга Европейской России

Abstract

The paper presents the results of the demographic processes analyses study in the South of European part of Russia in comparison with national outcomes. The research is based on a GIS monitoring concept and reveals the main characteristics of population size dynamic pattern with the influence of prevailing reproduction processes. The main sources of data are the office for national statistics and various regional statistics sources. ESRI ArcGIS Spatial Analyst software platform is used as a primary analytical framework. The study case covers the time frame from 1959 to 2018. Developing map models of the population’s natural reproduction brings out the depopulation speed and direction as a primary trend in Russia’s demographic development. At the beginning of the XXI century’s third decade, there is a significant reduction in the number of regions with positive natural population growth. The regions with decreasing in population have prevailed. The positive natural population growth preserves mainly in national territorial subdivisions with an unfinished demographic transition. The demographic picture in the south of European part of Russia looks relatively propitious. Negative demographic trends arise with a delay and have not reached the critical levels yet. The obvious polarization of demographic space in the south of Russia has educed — there are two areas with unequal trends of population growth: South-East area with a sustainable increase in the population and a migration outflow, the North-West area with a natural decline in the population and an erratic positive migration balance. Though the area with a sustainable increase in the population is reducing, showing positive trends in Krasnodar Krai and Republic of Adygea. The ethnic republic’s migration outflow is stable.