Abstract

Introduction. Available data indicate that the effectiveness of the strategy of "90-90-90" varies considerably between countries. For example, Australia with figures 90-90-79 (2016) has not achieved the negative trend of the incidence and prevalence, while Niger 35-90-57 performance demonstrates a stable decrease in the HIV epidemic. One possible explanation for the observed processes may have different development of the epidemic process in populations that differ by demographic characteristics. From this we can assume that the epidemic control in a strategy of «90-90-90» or any other strategies will differ significantly in such self-regulating systems. Aim: modeling the dynamics of the epidemic process in populations with different probability of HIV transmission and negative, zero, positive population growth. Materials and methods : Computer probabilistic modeling by the Monte Carlo method was carried out. The following parameters were used to describe the epidemic process: population size, birth rate, mortality, HIV prevalence, lethality among patients with HIV/AIDS and probability of HIV transmission. The values of these parameters were close to the UNAIDS global statistics. It is assumed that the effective management of the epidemic reduce the probability of HIV transmission in the population. The dynamics of the population size, incidence and prevalence of HIV infection in populations with negative, zero, positive natural growth and the probability of HIV transmission in the population from 50% to 10% has been consistently studied. Statistical processing carried out by the Student method. Results and discussion. In populations with a negative population growth and a probability of HIV transmission of 0.5, incidence and prevalence at the initial stage are characterized by an increasing trend, reach peak values and decrease to zero. When reducing the probability of HIV transmission peak becomes plateau or directly take the downward shape. In general terms, similar patterns are recorded at zero population growth. The incidence and prevalence of HIV infection with a positive population growth are changing cyclically up and down. Change transmission probabilities range from 0.5 to 0.2 is characterized by a decrease in the frequency and amplitude of peaks increasing incidence and prevalence. When transmission probabilities at 0.1 epidemic process drops sharply. According to the simulation, any managerial impact in countries with negative population growth should be effective. Practical evidence does not contradict theory. For example, indicators "56-66-59" in Ukraine led to a decrease in the incidence. Management actions in populations with positive population growth that reduce the probability of HIV transmission by 20% or 40% are ineffective. When reaching 80%, the epidemic process abruptly stops. Conclusions. The effect of reducing the probability of HIV transmission in populations with a negative and zero population growth is expressed as a linear reduction in incidence and prevalence (at fixed lethality). In populations with a positive natural growth reduction transmission probabilities less than 40% strategically not effective, and when it reaches 80% potentiated abrupt cessation epidemic process.

Highlights

  • Последовательно исследована динамика численности населения, заболеваемости и пораженности ВИЧ-инфекцией в популяциях с отрицательным, нулевым, положительным естественным приростом и вероятностью передачи ВИЧ в популяции от 50% до 10%

  • Management actions in populations with positive population growth that reduce the probability of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission by 20% or 40% are ineffective

  • Model parameters used in the study of the epidemic process with negative natural population growth and different probability of HIV transmission n B-D

Read more

Summary

Оригинальные статьи

Эффективность стратегии ЮНЭЙДС «90-90-90» в популяциях с различным приростом численности населения. Цель: моделирование динамики эпидемического процесса в популяциях с различной вероятностью передачи ВИЧ-инфекции и отрицательным, нулевым, положительным приростом численности населения. Последовательно исследована динамика численности населения, заболеваемости и пораженности ВИЧ-инфекцией в популяциях с отрицательным, нулевым, положительным естественным приростом и вероятностью передачи ВИЧ в популяции от 50% до 10%. Управленческие действия в популяциях с положительным приростом численности населения, которые уменьшают вероятность передачи ВИЧ на 20% или 40% неэффективны. Эффект уменьшения вероятности передачи ВИЧ в популяциях с отрицательным и нулевым приростом численности населения выражается в линейном снижении заболеваемости и пораженности (при фиксированной летальности). В популяциях с положительным естественным приростом уменьшения вероятности передачи ВИЧ менее 40% стратегически неэффективно, а при достижении 80% потенцируется резкое прекращение эпидемического процесса. Л. Эффективность стратегии ЮНЭЙДС «90-90-90» в популяциях с различным приростом численности населения.

Оригинальные статьи Original Articles
Исходное количество индивидов Population size
Описание имитационной модели эпидемического процесса
Размер пространства Space size
После коррекции численности повторяется
Количество инфицированных индивидуумов The number of infected individuals
Спад Recession
Результаты и обсуждение Анализ динамики эпидемического процесса
Да Yes
Достоверно не определена Reliably not determined
Findings
Украина Ukraine Румыния Romania Португалия Portugal
Full Text
Paper version not known

Talk to us

Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have

Schedule a call

Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.