Метод синтеза и анализа деревьев отказов на основе понятий механизма и кинетики событий

Abstract

The method for failure trees analysis is considered. This method is recommended by the standards as one of the main ones for identification of hazards, as well as for determining their causes and forecasting. It is proposed to expand the representation of the failures tree and using the extension to detail the algorithm (procedure) for its synthesis and analysis. The expansion is proposed on the basis of the concepts of the mechanism and kinetics of the undesirable (degradation) process, and also on the basis of the technical state dynamics model. The mechanism is the aggregation of the properties of the object and the factors that affect it. The kinetics are micro- and (or) macroscopic phenomena that arise as the results of summation or accumulation of elementary acts of a motion in a material and construction. The model of technical state dynamics is based on the structuring of a technical object and its states in accordance with the stages of degradation: defect, damage, destruction, failure, pre-emergency and emergency. The proposed extension and the procedure for the synthesis and analysis of the failure trees allows us to typify the representation of the failure trees. This makes it possible to simplify the process of constructing a tree, to initiate an explicit description of the knowledge of experts about the cause-effect relationships of events and the mechanisms of their occurrence. These opportunities are ensure the accumulation of knowledge about undesirable processes (degradation) for different types of objects and are necessary to increase the effectiveness of the process of analyzing the risk of hazard objects by experts.