Управление рисками техногенных чрезвычайных ситуаций с применением функции желательности

Abstract

Introduction. The risks associated with the occurrence of emergencies tend to increase sharply in the future due to the current pace of urbanization and population growth in the world. The ever-increasing complexity and uncertainty of the conditions for the occurrence and course of emergencies challenge existing approaches to assessing the risk of an emergency and dictate new requirements when making decisions in the context of managing measures aimed at preventing and eliminating the consequences of emergencies. This fact determines the relevance of the study. The aim of the study is to improve decision support in risk management under conditions of uncertainty and incompleteness of data using the Harrington desirability function. Research methods. Methods of desirability function, probability theory, system theory and system analysis. Results and their discussion. The article presents the results of assessing the applicability of the Harrington desirability function method for solving risk assessment problems within the framework of modern concepts of critical infrastructure life support. It is shown that on the basis of the proposed approach to risk assessment, it is possible to develop a comprehensive methodology using tools based on the Harrington desirability function. A conceptual approach to the analysis of the state of the integrated security system by determining a generalized indicator is proposed. The methodology for the formation of the generalized indicator assumes its determination in the conditions of man-made emergencies characteristic of a given territory. The analysis of the causal relationships leading to the occurrence of an emergency situation is carried out, the specificity of the conditional applicability of the proposed comprehensive risk assessment methodology using the Harrington desirability function is shown. Thus, comparative analysis and quantitative assessment of risks (natural and anthropogenic) characteristic of the studied territory is the main factor of sustainable development of the territory and competent management of the risk of emergency situations. Conclusion. The proposed approach will significantly expand the possibilities of existing methods of forecasting emergencies. The applicability of the developed conceptual approach to the definition of a generalized condition indicator is shown both for the assessment of the system as a whole and its individual elements in the conditions of man-made emergencies characteristic of a certain territory. The original scale of translation of the values of the desirability function into the level of security is proposed for subsequent comparative analysis. Keywords: complex security; risk; Harrington; logical functions; desirability function.