Российская экономика: между кризисами

Abstract

The article analyzes the dynamics of the Russian economy during the crisis of 2015–2016 and subsequent stagnation in 2017–2019. The main components of economic policy are examined and institutional trends that determine macroeconomic dynamics, in particular, consumer demand, investment in fixed assets, foreign trade conditions and the orientation of economic institutions, are evaluated. A comparison is made of the immediate causes and institutional conditions for the formation and manifestation of crises in the Russian economy. It is shown that, in accordance with the general theory of economic cycles and crises, external resource demand shocks are a direct reason for the formation of the medium-term financial and economic cycle in the Russian economy, integrated into the global market environment. A comparative study of the scenarios and parameters of the Russian economic crises of the 1990s and 2000s showed that the main reason global shocks, standard in scale and mechanism of impact, have a deeper and longer impact on the Russian economy, creating large-scale and deep financial economic crises, has been ongoing since the early 1990s. and the crisis of fundamental institutional conservatism that has not been overcome so far, which prevented the formation of internal compensators and stabilizers that can weaken or even block the effect of external shocks. It is shown that the exit of the Russian economy from the crisis of 2015–2016 is blocked by two main factors: 1) the beginning of the next cycle of recession in the global economy, which creates new demand and resource external shocks, 2) the stability of the extractive nature of Russian economic institutions that are not oriented towards creating a platform economic growth, but, on the contrary, on the deactivation of growth resources