Многофакторная математическая модель зависимости ожидаемого сокращения интегрального ущерба от ряда профилактических мероприятий в жилом секторе России

Abstract

Introduction. The article analyzes the statistical data of a number of preventive measures in the residential sectors of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation for the period 2020-2021, and based on these data, a multifactorial mathematical model is developed for assessing the dependence of the expected reduction in integral damage on a number of preventive measures. Significant and less significant factors of preventive measures that affect the number of deaths, injuries and damage from fire in residential sectors are identified. The optimal predictive value for the model was obtained and the zones of acceptable and unacceptable marginality were determined. Based on the calculations, an assessment of the levels of fire danger in the residential sectors of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation is presented, which were determined on the basis of an integral socio-economic indicator of fire risk. Targets and goals. The purpose of the study is to determine the significant and less significant factors of preventive measures in the residential sectors and to determine the optimal predictive value. Methods. To solve the research problems, the methods of system analysis, multiple regression, statistical analysis, mathematical statistics, etc. were used. Results and discussion. An analysis has been carried out and a multifactorial mathematical model of multiple regression of the dependence of the expected reduction in integral damage has been developed. By calculation, based on the analysis of the integral socio-economic indicator of fire risk, the regions of the Russian Federation with the most fire hazardous level of the residential sector were identified. Conclusion. A number of significant and less significant factors of preventive measures obtained in the work in the residential sectors of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation make it possible to improve management decisions in the field of preventive work and reduce the level of fire danger in the residential sector of the constituent entities of Russia. The model forecast showed that with an increase in significant factors = 60 %, = 80,4 %, = 86,4 %, = 91,2 %, the number of people killed in fires in the residential sector in 35 subjects decreases by 8, 95 people, with confidence limits. Keywords: residential sector, multiple regression, mathematical model, significant factors, fire danger level, fire risk, preventive measures, integral damage.