Статистический анализ эволюции прозрачности атмосферы в г. Москве

Abstract

The co-authors discuss the statistical analysis results of the atmospheric transparency evolution in Moscow territory within the last 35 years. The analysis shows the statistical increase of the global warming impact on the growing daily average visibility or the atmospheric transparency. The article presents statistical regularities of the risk increase of the atmosphere transparency deviations from its multiyear averages. The article notes the impact of atmospheric transparency on the risk of the increase in the weather anomalies, roof icing, as well as icing of power supply systems and communication, roads, bridges and other transport construction objects. It is also noted that the increase in temperature fluctuations amplitude, humidity, rainfall and other climatic loads leads to accelerated deterioration of building structures. The average increase in the number of atmospheric high transparency realizations increased almost 1.5 times for the last 35 years.If the trend persists for the current urban planning period (e.g., 100 years), the3,37 times increase in the number of days with high transparency is very realistic. The increase in atmosphere transparency will be accompanied by the concomitant rise of temperature, humidity, precipitation and wind speed oscillations.With the increasing duration of windless seasons we should also expect the concomitant growing risks of dry, hot and fire seasons. Such a global climate change process is of great importance for investors, self-regulatory organizations, owners of construction objects, managing and energy companies and insurers. It is also essential for municipal, regional and Federal urban planning companies.This problem in Russia and abroad is significantly intensified by previously unexpected growth of hazardous man-made and natural, climatic, geological and geophysical processes. These factors cause new and, as a result, non-normalized loads and impacts on buildings, structures and geoecological systems of the urbanized territories, which are beyond the project. In addition to the statistical data analysis of the Moscow atmospheric transparency evolution the authors also performed similar research on daily average visibility in different locations and on different continents.Such studies have been conducted by the authors in such cities as New-York, Anchorage, Buenos Aires, Niamey, London, Tokyo, Canberra and other cities of the planet. The analysis of geographical manifestations of atmosphere transparency evolution as a result of global climate change showed that the daily average visibility evolution observed in Moscow is of global nature. These results will be published by the authors in the coming series of articles on the subject.Global warming creates the problems of food security, urban population sustainment and construction adaptation to the new climatic realities in long perspective of urban planning. Solar radiation effect on the structures of buildings are among the most important climatic loads, which are taken into account in the regulations in the process of buildings and structures design.However, the excising regulatory documents contain no data about the evolution of solar irradiation over the building constructions throughout the buildings life cycle as a result of the continuing global warming. This remark also refers to the radiation intensity change as a result of the transparency or daily average visibility evolution.