О тенденциях эколого-климатических рисков для здоровья человека в Арктической зоне России в условиях изменяющегося климата

Abstract

The authors explore the dynamics of human health risks caused by air pollution and weather and climate comfort in the Arctic zone of Russia in 2020-2050 under two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). According to estimates, in the period up to 2050, there is generally an insignificant dynamics of risks characterized by inter-scenario variability and dispersion across the territory of the Russian Arctic. Only in certain areas there are noticeable trends. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, a significant area of the Arctic shows a trend towards increased health risks from air pollution and improved weather and climate comfort in spring and summer. In winter and autumn, in some Arctic regions of the ETR (European territory of Russia) and Siberia, increased cold discomfort is possible. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, there is a tendency to reduce the risk from air pollution in most areas, and improve comfort in almost the entire territory of the Russian Arctic in spring, in most of the subarctic zone — in other seasons, in the temperate zone — in summer. A trend towards increased cold discomfort is noted in large areas of the Arctic zone in winter, summer and autumn, in certain areas of the European territory of Russia and Siberia in the temperate zone — in autumn and winter, in the subarctic zone — in autumn. The authors outline the need for additional attention when planning measures to adapt to climate change in the territories of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Area and the Krasnoyarsk Territory. The findings are relevant for strategic planning of the development of Arctic territories, environmental and climatic risks management for the population living and working in the Arctic.