지역별 오피스텔 시장 경기 국면 변동

Abstract

This study analyzed the business regime of the officetel market by region using Markov switching model. The spatial scope was the nationwide and the five major regions of Seoul, and the provinces, and the temporal range was set from January 2018 to January 2024. Looking at the probability of regime switching, The duration of regime 1 in the provinces is more than 58 months, so there is a possibility that it will be a long-term recession. In the northeast and northwest areas of Seoul, the probability that regime 2 will continue is approximately 96.5% and 92.8%, respectively, and the average duration is 28.499 months and 13.807 months, showing that the boom period is more likely to continue. Looking at the probability distribution for each regime, it was found that regime 1, a recession period, continued for most of the nationwide and provinces throughout the analysis period, but regime 2, a boom period, continued from early 2018 to late 2022, although there were differences in the northeast and northwest areas of Seoul.