서울시 상가 낙찰가율 결정요인에 관한 연구

Abstract

This study analyzed the impact of the real estate market and macroeconomic factors on the retail property bid price ratio in Seoul. For this, a vector error correction model (VEC) was used. As an analysis model, the dependent variables were set as the retail property bid price ratio, the independent variables as the apartment price index, the bid ratio for retail property, the corporate bond yield, and the industrial production index. Estimates of the VECM model show that the industrial production index has a statistically significant negative effect on the winning bid price ratio in the long run. Also, impulse response analysis shows that corporate bond yield and the apartment price index have a significant impact on the retail property bid price ratio. In addition, it was analyzed that the corporate bond yield has a positive effect on the retail property bid price ratio, but the apartment price has a negative effect on the retail property bid price ratio. In addition, it was analyzed that the explanatory power was high in the order of corporate bond yield, apartment price index, and industrial production index. while the explanatory power of the bid ratio for retail property was insignificant. These analysis results suggest that the real estate market and macroeconomic conditions will need to be comprehensively considered for the stable operation of the auction market in the future.