Низкоуглеродное развитие России: вызовы и возможности в новых условиях

Abstract

Russiaʼs model of economic development, based on hydrocarbon exports, initially determined the countryʼs scepticism to- ward low-carbon transformation. However, the growing negative effects of climate change, manifesting in increased natural disasters (floods, fires, extreme heat), as well as extraterritorial measures imposed by major trading partners, which could potentially limit market access, led to a transformation of the perceived climate change challenge and the adoption of a range of policy documents and regulations to articulate and implement a low-carbon development policy in Russia. The targets and measures have been criticized for lacking ambition and rigour, but still pushed the processes without which the economy would continue to face the negative effects of climate change and increasing constraintsin global markets. The geopolitical crisis of 2022 and widening sanctions have significantly constrained Russiaʼs ability to meet climate targets. Despite this, mechanisms to promote decarbonization in key sectors continue to be developed. In addition, opportunities for cooperation with some major non-western economies have not closed. This article analyzes Russiaʼs strategic documents and key low-carbon development policies, including the activities of major companies. It provides perspective on the role of forest climate projects as well astheir drawbacks and risks, the Sakhalin experiment to achieve carbon neutrality in the region and how it is implemented through concrete initiatives, the prospects and limitations of the hydrogen industry, the challenges and tools for decarbonizing transport, state of play in the carbon capture, use and storage technologies, the criteria for green projects, and the situation on the green bond market. It also identifies two important areas which gain importance as the climate transition scales up: nuclear power and the ex- traction and production of critical raw materials. Based on the analysis, recommendations are given on promising areas of cooperation between Russia and its BRICS and EAEU partners.