Геодемографическая динамика населения Крыма: основные тренды и факторы постсоветского периода

Abstract

The article examines the geodemographic dynamics of the Crimea in the post-Soviet period: changes in the population of the peninsula, its centers and territories; changeable ratio of natural and migration components, and shifts in the settlement system. In the dynamics of the processes under analysis, four stages are distinguished: three of them relate to the Ukrainian period of the Crimea’s development, and the last one it is the Russian stage which begins in 2014. Until the mid-1990s (the first stage), the population of the peninsula continues to grow, despite the natural decline and increased outflow to Russia. The main reason for this is the large-scale re-emigration of Crimean Tatars to the peninsula, most of whom settle in the interior of the Crimea. The next stage (late 1990s – the middle of the 2000s) is associated with a significant depopulation of the region, primarily due to a high natural population decline. The third stage (the second half of the 2000s – the beginning of the 2010s), at which the depopulation is replaced by a minimal increase in the population of the peninsula, is associated with an improvement of the indicators of its natural reproduction and a certain increase in the migration influx. The features of the Russian development stage are set by two multi-component processes. Migration activity is determined by the consequences of the transition of the Crimea to Russia. Meanwhile in the natural reproduction, a central role is played by a small generation of the 1990s entering into the reproductive age, with such consequences as a rapid decline in the birth rate and an increase in natural loss. The result of these processes is a certain stabilization of the population of the Crimea. The situation in which the natural decline is offset by the migration influx is likely to continue in the nearest future and in the medium term period (until 2030–2035). The main trend in the spatial distribution of the demographic potential of the Crimea in the last 15–20 years is a gradual increase in the proportion of the population settled on the coast and in the coastal zone 15–20 km wide.