ОЦІНЮВАННЯ ТА ВИБІР СТРАТЕГІЇ ПІДПРИЄМСТВА ЗАСОБАМИ НЕЧІТКОЇ ЛОГІКИ

Abstract

The paper developed a methodical approach to the evaluation and selection of strategic alternatives to businesses based on their prioritization using the tools of fuzzy multi-criteria analysis and fuzzy logic. This approach is based on the use of fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (Fuzzy AHP) with a certain term, set for paired comparisons variants and corresponding triangular fuzzy numbers. Evaluation criteria are considered as fuzzy sets defined on universal sets of options (strategic alternatives) using membership functions. Membership functions of fuzzy sets are defined based on expert information on the pairwise comparisons of alternatives using the fuzzy Saaty scale. To ensure the consistency of expert estimates, it is proposed to use the Fuzzy Delphi method. To determine the importance of the evaluation criteria and to calculate fuzzy values priority strategic alternatives for these criteria using the procedure Fuzzy AHP method. The resulting weights of criteria are considered as an appropriate degree of concentration membership functions. The calculation of the integral value of the priority level of strategic alternatives is carried out based on the Bellman-Zade scheme known in the theory of decision-making. For practical implementation of the methodological approach in the Matlab computer system (Fuzzy Logic Toolbox package), a framework is developed, which contains four main blocks: a block of input of expert information on the relative superiority of criteria in pairwise comparison and strategic alternatives to these criteria, a block of calculating weights, criteria a block for calculating fuzzy values of the priority of strategic alternatives according to these criteria and a block for finding the intersection of the obtained fuzzy sets according to the Bellman-Zade scheme. Defuzzification of the obtained fuzzy values is carried out based on the CoA method (Center of Area method). This framework allows you to perform simulations depending on the input data obtained from experts. The developed methodological approach allows the top management of the enterprise to determine the priority of the developed strategies in the presence of only qualitative information on the relative superiority of evaluation criteria and strategic alternatives and expands the possibilities of classical methods of strategic choice.