МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ ДИНАМІКИ ПОКАЗНИКІВ ФІНАНСОВОЇ СИСТЕМИ УКРАЇНИ

Abstract

The article examines the main factors influencing the stability and strength of the financial system of Ukraine during 2007-2020 . In result of the conducted researches, the use of the dynamic economic-mathematical model for the analysis of financial indicators and definition of each factor is offered. The negative effects of economic crises of recent years, fluctuations in the national exchange rate, bankruptcy of banks and other financial institutions, volatility of financial markets indicate instability and unpredictability of economic processes and do not increase the investment attractiveness of our country. Falling demand for metallurgical products, hryvnia devaluation, capital outflows and price instability caused the financial and economic crisis of 2008-2009, which showed the system imperfection and the inability to monitor financial stability. Ineffective public policy and the inability to assess potential threats exacerbated the crisis in early 2014. The COVID-19 pandemic caused a new global crisis in 2020, which resulting in the collapse of Ukraine's economy. The country's economy fell by almost 12% in the second quarter of 2020. Since Ukraine is negatively affected by economic crises, there is a need to model financial indicators and forecast their changes under the influence of internal and external factors. The stability of the Ukraine financial system on the basis of a vector autoregressive model construction for the period from 2007 to 2021 is analyzed. As a result of the conducted researches, the vector autoregressive model (VAR) was confirmed by the optimal specification of time series, and the significant influence of each factor was determined. The negative effects of the economic crises of 2008-2009, 2014, and 2020 on the state economy are analyzed. It was found that Ukraine gradually began to emerge from the global economic crisis in 2020, caused by the pandemic COVID-19. In order to ensure financial stability and strength of the economy, it is important to forecast and predict external and internal threats, as well as the gradual strengthening of financial indicators.