국제 자발적 탄소시장 크레딧 가격 결정요인분석

Abstract

This study analyzes the correlation between voluntary carbon market credit prices and three key sets of variables. Prior research on compliance carbon markets has identified these factors as a significant influence on emission price factors. This study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to test these relationships and empirically examines short and long term correlations by conducting cointegration tests between each variable and the emission credit price. The results of the study are as follows:First, electricity prices exhibit a positive relationship with credit prices in the short term but a negative relationship in the long term. Second, compared to regulatory carbon market prices, credit prices are influenced by temperature variables, reflecting local weather conditions. Third, the energy variable emerges as the most crucial factor impacting prices in both compliance emissions trading systems and voluntary carbon credits. This implies that companies aiming for carbon neutrality through voluntary carbon market credits must develop comprehensive strategies that consider various external circumstances.