셀룰러 오토마타를 이용한 산사태 재난지역 분석에 관한 연구 - 서울특별시 서초구 우면산을 대상으로-

Abstract

South Korea has many landslides caused by heavy rains during summer time recently and the landslides continue to cause damages in many places. These landslides occur repeatedly each year, and the frequency of landslides is expected to increase in the coming future due to dramatic global climate change. In Korea, 81.5% of the population is living in urban areas and about 1,055 million people are living in Seoul. In 2011, the landslide that occurred in Seocho-dong killed 18 people and about 9% of Seoul's area is under the same land conditions as Seocho-dong. Even the size of landslide occurred in a city is small, but it is more likely to cause a big disaster because of a greater population density in the city. So far, the effort has been made to identify landslide vulnerability and causes, but now, the new dem and arises for the prediction study about the areal extent of disaster area in case of landslides. In this study, the diffusion model of the landslide disaster area was established based on Cellular Automata(CA) to analyze the physical diffusion forms of landslide. This study compared the accuracy with the Seocho-dong landslide case, which occurred in July 2011, applying the SCIDDICA model and the CAESAR model. The SCIDDICA model involves the following variables, such as the movement rules and the topographical obstacles, and the CAESAR model is also applied to this process to simulate the changes of deposition and erosion.