ИССЛЕДОВАНИЕ ДИНАМИКИ СПРОСА ИННОВАЦИОННОГО ТОВАРА В КОНТЕКСТЕ ТЕОРИИ РАСПРОСТРАНЕНИЯ ИНФОРМАЦИИ

Abstract

The studies on the dynamics of demand for innovative products are at the junction of the diffusion theory, product life cycle theory, theory of information distribution and sales management. The paper deals with studies within the first two theories. It’s shown that the examined studies are essential for a better understanding of dissemination of innovations at the stage of its commercialization, but they don’t sufficiently take into account its features. Thereby, conceptual provisions of control over the commercialization of innovative products are proposed and substantiated. The selection of stages of innovative products realization according to submitting information to potential buyers underlies these provisions. At the first stage a potential buyer gets information about the innovative product either by the media or interpersonal communication. At the second stage a potential buyer evaluates a buying opportunity depending on his ability to pay. At the third stage a potential buyer decides to purchase a product which depends on his psychological type. At the fourth stage a potential buyer gets an innovative product. The methodological approach to forecasting the dynamics of innovative products implementation taking into account the stages of making a decision about the purchase by a potential buyer, caused by peculiarities of the commercialization of innovations, is proposed. The methodological approach to calculation of the market capacity (number of potential buyers) of an innovative product, depending on the dynamics of its price change and taking into account the stage of making a decision about the purchase by potential buyers, is offered. The method of determining the demand for innovative goods in accordance with information support of potential buyers is developed. The proposed methodological tools for forecasting the dynamics of demand for innovative products makes it possible to reduce an error of forecasting the dynamics of the innovative products sales volume and, consequently, reduce the costs associated with revaluation or underestimation of demand.