한국 지방소멸위험의 공간 분포 변화 분석

Abstract

This study aims to search the changes in the spatial distribution of nationwide local extinction risk in a macroscopic way, and visualize that of eup and myeon with high extinction risk in a microscopic way, using the local extinction risk index. Local extinction risk indexes were calculated in 2000, 2010, and 2020 nationwide, and time-series analyses were performed based on them. According to the results of calculating the local extinction risk index in 2000, 2010, and 2020, there was no extinction risk area in 2000, but 61 in 2010 and 103 in 2020 were identified. This means that the local extinction risk has been intensified rapidly nationwide for the past 20 years. In particular, in 2020, 62.1% of the total extinction risk areas were concentrated on the Gyeongsang and Jeolla province. In addition, 25 guns including Uiseong-gun, Gyeongsangbuk-do, had ranked on the top 10% of national extinction risks in 2000, 2010, and 2020. This suggests that the state of high extinction risk was attached to a specific area. According to the results of the analyses on the 12 high risk extinction guns by eup and myeon(the top 5% of nationwide extinction risk), all 138 eups and myeons were identified as the extinction risk areas. Most of the areas with high extinction risk were myeon that has been underdeveloped. This study will be a basis of population geography and cartography to correspond the era of the low growth and the population decrease.