Моделирование воздействия опасных факторов на систему "критически важный объект - экологическая среда"

Abstract

Introduction. The article reveals the concept of "dangerous state", formulated the task of modeling the impact of hazardous factors on the system "Critical object – ecological environment", taking into account the interaction of elements in the subsystem "Potentially dangerous object – environment". Goals and objectives. On the basis of a systematic approach to the analysis of the elements of the system "Critical object – ecological environment" to substantiate the system of indicators of the protection of the subsystem "Potentially dangerous object – environment" and a system of indicators of the impact on the system under study and its subsystems of dangerous factors of the aggressive environment, taking into account the modeling of the impact of natural factors and human impact. Methods. To form a system of subsystem security indicators "Potentially dangerous object – environment" and systems of indicators of the impact on the system under study and its subsystems of dangerous factors of aggressive environment used methods of mathematical modeling of various states of subsystems, methods of probability theory, analytical methods for assessing the security and survivability of objects and complexes, methods of disaster theory. Results and discussion. As a result of a systematic approach to the analysis of the system "Critical object – ecological environment", the following conclusions are substantiated. Justification of subsystem security indicators "A potentially dangerous object – environment" is based on the security model of its subsystems. The system of indicators of the impact on the studied system and its subsystems of hazardous factors of an aggressive environment is based on models of the impact of natural factors and human factors. These include: - model of the impact of damaging elements on the elements of the subsystem "inventory storage facility – environment"; - model of shock-wave impact in case of an accident on the elements of the subsystem "object of storage of stocks – environment"; - model of the effect of polluting compounds in the air on the elements of the subsystem "storage facility – environment"; - model of the impact of a landscape fire on the elements of the subsystem "inventory storage facility – environment". - model of violators' access to stocks on potentially hazardous facility at their storage facilities; - model of countering terrorism in the system "object of storage of stocks – environment"; - model for predicting emergencies in case of violation of safety regulations by maintenance personnel in the subsystem "object of work with reserves environment". Conclusions. The concept of "dangerous state" is disclosed, the indicators of the protection of a potentially dangerous object are justified, the indicators of the impact of dangerous factors in the subsystem are justified "A potentially dangerous object is the environment". Keywords: dangerous condition, potentially dangerous object, system, environment, modeling, security indicators, exposure to dangerous factors. Funding: the article was prepared based on the results of research carried out at the expense of budgetary funds under the state assignment of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation