Моделирование экономических взаимодействий в системе «энергетика - экономика»: опыт Дальнего Востока

Abstract

The article presents the evolution of models and model complexes used to study the relationship between economy and energy sector; the authors characterize models that describe these relationships in exogenous form (optimization and simulation models) and endogenous form (integrated econometric and input-output models and models of economic interactions (general equilibrium models)). The researchers also develop a model of economic interactions of the Far East with a detailed energy sector and propose a series of experimental calculations based on this model. The paper includes estimation of intervals sustainability of regional macro-indicators to changes in energy and fuel prices; the authors find that the dynamics of GRP and income are more sensitive to changes in hydrocarbon prices than to changes in prices of electricity and coal. It is shown that in existing technologies the reduction in the price of coal relative to natural gas leads to lower economic growth in the region. It is established that the substitution of imported oil for that produced in the region leads to the downturn in the region’s economy, whereas in the case of coal it produces growth.