Моделирование влияния бедности, безработицы, волатильных процентных ставок и неравенства на экономическую безопасность государства

Abstract

The monograph examines the problems of modeling the impact of poverty, employment, volatile interest rates and inequality on the economic security of the state. Theoretical and methodological approaches to calculating absolute and relative indicators of the level of poverty are studied, and these indicators are calculated in relation to Russia and the EU countries. The study identified limitations of existing conceptual approaches to the calculation of poverty, as well as recommendations for the formation of an integrated approach to the assessment of poverty and measures for its sustainable reduction in accordance with the national goals of the Russian Federation. The problems of forming an integrated approach to assessing the level of poverty in Russia for the purpose of further development of state policy measures to achieve its radical reduction are considered. The analysis of the cyclical dynamics of the indicator of the level of poverty in the EAEU countries has been carried out, revealing the features of this phenomenon in the States that are most economically integrated with Russia. Trends and features of the dynamics of indicators of absolute poverty and inequality in certain regions (subjects of the Federation) are revealed) Russia, groups of regions and Federal districts, and their impact on the country's economic security. Data on the level of absolute poverty and inequality in a number of regions are systematized and analyzed. Possible interdependencies in the dynamics of indicators of absolute poverty and inequality are revealed. The existing approaches to determining the level of poverty, the dynamics of this indicator, and suggestions for improving the methodology for determining it are considered. Based on this, a comparative analysis of approaches and methods for determining the level of poverty, as well as the dynamics of this indicator in other CIS countries that are not members of the EAEU, and EU countries was studied and conducted. For comparative cross-country data analysis, it is proposed to consider the possibility of creating a Eurasian statistical service within the EAEU that collects statistical data and unifies statistical methods among the EAEU member States. The article considers the evolution of the transformation crisis socio-demographic system of the post-Soviet countries in the period 1991-2020 and presents the dynamics of the main indicators of the Russian national economy in the modern period. The impact of the economic consequences of the coronavirus pandemic on the level of poverty and anti-crisis measures of national governments is investigated. The monograph is intended for managers and specialists of public administration and corporate management, researchers, doctoral students, postgraduates and students.