Перспективная оценка спроса на электроэнергию в РФ и регионах с учетом углубленной электрификации

Abstract

A global priority of electrification expansion in all areas is also stated in the Energy Strategy of the Russian Federation. The study aims to forecast electricity demand in Russia taking into account possible electrification options in economic sectors. The article presents a multi-stage procedure and a concise review of methodological approaches to the long-term assessment of electricity demand, which considers the impact of complex interrelationships in social, economic and technological policies. In particular, this approach focuses on the regional level, where the interests of energy producers and consumers are reconciled. The current and promising directions of electricity use in Russian regions and economic sectors were analysed based on various statistics and forecasts. The conducted analysis demonstrated the stability of sectoral and territorial energy consumption patterns, as well as a decrease and convergence of values of gross regional product (GRP) energy intensity. Energy consumption of regions varies due to significant differences in industrial specialisation and living standards of the population. The highest energy consumption is observed in developed regions (Central Federal District) or regions with a large share of energy-intensive industries (Siberian Federal District). According to the accepted economic development and electrification expansion strategies for the period 2025–2040, on average, electricity demand in Russian regions is expected to increase by 1.4–1.8 % annually. It is anticipated that the Siberian and Far Eastern Federal Districts will show the highest growth rates of energy consumption due to the accelerated development of these territories. Predicted dynamics of the gross domestic product (GDP) energy intensity in Russia confirms its compliance with global trends. The research findings may prove useful in creating programmes and development strategies for the country and its regions.